Don’t blame populism for the chaos in France

When Emmanuel Macron first ascended to the presidency in 2017, he was cheered as the man to restore normality to French politics, and to save Europe from the ‘leprosy’ of populism. His centrist, technocratic brand of politics was hailed as both politically savvy – reaching beyond left and right – and pragmatic; doing ‘what works’ was supposed to inject some sorely needed dynamism into a sputtering economy. But it hasn’t quite turned out that way.

The collapse of the French government yesterday has surely brought those delusions crashing down with it. The no-confidence vote in Michel Barnier, Macron’s hand-picked prime minister, has plunged France into its most serious political, constitutional and economic crisis in decades. And Macron and his fellow technocrats must shoulder the blame.

The current crisis began with the snap National Assembly elections in July. Macron’s Ensemble party won fewer votes than both the right-populist National Rally (RN), which came top in terms of vote share, and the newly formed leftist coalition, the New Popular Front (NPF), which won the most parliamentary seats. Voters turned to parties of the left and the right to deliver a one-two punch to the president.

Undeterred by the voters’ anger, Macron imposed his own choice of prime minister, Michel Barnier, on the nation to rule in a minority administration. Matters came to a head when the time came to pass a budget. In order to keep France’s ballooning budget deficit and public debt within strict limits set by the European Union, Barnier’s budget contained an eye-watering €40 billion worth of cuts to public spending and €20 billion in tax rises – a plan loathed by the left and hard right alike. Unable to win the necessary votes in the National Assembly, Barnier triggered the controversial article 49.3 of the French constitution to push the budget through without MPs’ approval. But this also opened up his government to a vote of no confidence, which he lost decisively last night.

With Barnier out, Macron now needs to find a sixth prime minister. To paraphrase Oscar Wilde, to lose one prime minister may be regarded as a misfortune; to lose five looks like carelessness. Each of Macron’s PMs has been ousted faster than the last. Barnier’s 90-day premiership was the shortest in the history of the Fifth Republic. The last time a prime minister lost a no-confidence vote was more than six decades ago, when Charles de Gaulle was still president.

There is now no precedent for what happens next. Under the French constitution, legislative elections cannot be held until the summer next year, meaning Macron is stuck with a hung parliament that won’t accept his austerity measures or pass a new budget. The easiest way through the impasse would be for Macron himself to resign, but he has vowed explicitly to stay on as president until his term ends in 2027. This means France will effectively be ungovernable for the foreseeable future.

Worse, France has become ungovernable at a time of acute economic peril. Debt has spiralled to the kind of levels seen in Italy just before the Euro crisis. Ahead of the budget vote, France’s borrowing costs rose above those of crisis-strewn Greece for the first time. Hamstrung by EU rules, whoever takes over the next government will have to pass swingeing cuts to public spending – which could prove both politically disastrous and economically counter-productive. While it would be overstating it to say the French economy is on the verge of collapse, we are a very long way away from the dynamic, competitive ‘start-up nation’ that Macron promised to build when he entered the Élysée, to say the least.

Observers have been quick to blame the ‘populists’ on the left and the right for pulling the plug on Barnier’s ailing government. Some have even blamed the voters for the current instability, due to their failure to either back Macron or coalesce around an alternative. But the crisis is one of the technocrats’ own making. It lies in the failure of Macron – and Macronism – to solve France’s problems or to address voters’ concerns.

France is not alone, of course. Barnier’s government fell only a month after the collapse of Olaf Scholz’s deeply hated coalition government in Germany. And of course, just a month after Donald Trump battered the US Democrats. Governments of the technocratic centre are toppling like dominoes, unable to survive their internal rot and the fury of the voters. The crisis in France shows the dire need for an alternative.

Fraser Myers is deputy editor at spiked and host of the spiked podcast. Follow him on X: @FraserMyers.