The con of COP

‘Oil and gas are a gift from God… The people need them.’

Surprisingly, these remarks were not made by US president-elect Donald Trump, waxing lyrical about the joys of ‘the liquid gold’ on a three-hour podcast. No, these were actually the words of the host of COP29 – delivered at this year’s United Nations climate summit.

At each COP, the UN’s annual climate confab, world leaders are expected to reaffirm their commitments to eliminating greenhouse gasses and bringing an end to fossil fuels. But instead of mouthing the usual platitudes about the impending ‘climate emergency’ or ‘ecological crisis’, the president of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev, used his opening address in Baku this week to make the case for the ongoing exploitation of fossil fuels, and to denounce the hypocrisy of the West’s green virtue-signallers.

And you know what? He had a point.

Of course, Aliyev is the ruler of a petrostate, so he is bound to be a fan of fossil fuels. Indeed, the world’s first oil fields were developed in Baku in 1846. According to the International Energy Agency, oil and gas account for a third of Azerbaijan’s GDP and a whopping 90 per cent of its exports. Nevertheless, his intervention is both welcome and surprising. Finally, someone has made explicit what most world leaders know to be true, but have refused to say out loud – namely, that ending the use of oil and gas is simply not an option for nations that want to thrive.

At recent COP summits, we could only infer this from the behind-the-scenes activity. Indeed, it has become something of an annual tradition for a high-ranking COP official to be caught using the conference to secure lucrative fossil-fuel deals on the sidelines. Last week, the chief executive of Azerbaijan’s COP29 team, Elnur Soltanov, was filmed secretly discussing ‘investment opportunities’ in the state oil and gas company by an undercover reporter. Last year, leaked documents showed that the United Arab Emirates planned to use its presidency of COP28 in Dubai to ink oil and gas deals with 15 other countries (the UAE relies on oil and gas for almost half of government revenue). In Egypt in 2022, more than 600 oil and gas lobbyists attended COP27. The Sharm El-Sheikh summit was the first in which fossil-fuel lobbyists were invited to take part in official events.

Such farces are increasingly a feature, not a bug, of these UN climate gatherings. They can’t merely be dismissed as the antics of any one corrupt or autocratic regime (however unpleasant those regimes may otherwise be). What they show is that, for most of the world, when push comes to shove, mitigating climate change is simply not as important as securing energy supplies and economic prosperity. Nor should it be for any country.

Last year’s COP28 was the first in history in which signatories to the final deal explicitly agreed to ‘transition away’ from all forms of fossil fuel. But since then, the world’s consumption of fossil fuels has reached a record high. Overall, oil, gas and coal account for a whopping 81.5 per cent of the world’s primary energy use. China, the world’s largest CO2 emitter, is building the equivalent of two coal plants per week. In India, demand for coal-powered electricity reached an all-time high this year. The US – even under the eco-fanatical Biden administration – is currently producing more oil than any other country in history, a record that will undoubtedly be smashed when Trump enters office. President Aliyev called out the EU for signing a major gas deal with Azerbaijan, while also chastising Azerbaijan for its temerity to produce gas. Do as I say, not as I do – that is the mantra of Western climate alarmists.

The reasons for the continued rise of fossil fuels are not exactly hard to fathom, even if they are taboo to utter. The fact is, in contrast with ‘intermittent’ renewable energy sources, fossil fuels are relatively reliable and cheap, and they are easy to transport. Abundant and secure supplies of energy create prosperity, while high energy costs and supply uncertainties lead to stunted growth and deindustrialisation. The green-energy transition is proving to be painful enough for the developed world – just ask Germany, which is paying a heavy price for betting the farm on renewables. But it is catastrophic in the developing world. Which is why the countries of the Global South are often the loudest defenders of fossil fuels. They know that no nation in history has lifted itself out of poverty with limited access to energy. They know the Net Zero dogma that is preached annually at COP is a recipe for poverty and destitution. The poorest countries on Earth are absolutely right to reject this miserable ‘green’ future.

The sooner we retire the West’s decadent green fantasies, the brighter humanity’s future will start to look.

Fraser Myers is deputy editor at spiked and host of the spiked podcast. Follow him on X: @FraserMyers.