No one voted for a ‘woke wave’

It’s easy to get depressed about American politics. Some might see us shifting from the MAGA personality cult to the impending rule of the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA).

That view is wrong and misreads the results of yesterday’s midterm elections. It may have been a disaster for the Republicans, and particularly Donald Trump, but not necessarily for the country. Despite the success of some awful lefties, notably Abdul El-Sayed (D-Muslim Brotherhood), the biggest – and most unheralded – victories were won by Democratic candidates professing a more moderate message.

Even in metropolitan New York, particularly in the suburbs, it was moderate Democrats, largely pro-Israel, who won the day. The suburbs may dislike Trump, but they are not hanging socialist banners or Palestinian flags in their town centres.

More critical still was the election of centrist Democrats in deep-red states. New Kansas senator Adam Hamilton, the first donkey to win in the state since the New Deal, is a former Republican with moderate views. North Carolina’s moderate and popular Roy Cooper is one model, as is re-elected Pennsylvania governor Josh Shapiro.

The Democratic centre was further boosted by the election of Josh Turek, Iowa’s new senator, who comes from the state’s reddest district. James Talarico in Texas and Annie Andrews in South Carolina have not yet tangled with the DSA, and seem unlikely to embrace many of their policies.

The key point: after nearly a decade, moderate southern Democrats are back. In the Clinton years, they proved invaluable allies – led by Louisiana’s John Breaux – for centrist policies. Clinton himself came from deep red Arkansas, and he remains America’s only effective and consistently popular president since Ronald Reagan.

Southern and plains Democrats can’t afford to embrace socialism while appealing to farmers, factory workers and small businesspeople. They cannot indulge in the political fantasies that can be spun in places like New York City, where most of the victories over the last incumbent Republicans were achieved by pro-Israel moderates. If the likes of Talarico decide to go all in transgenderism and banning fossil fuels, they can be guaranteed short careers.

Even California appears to have opted not to pass the billionaire tax, Proposition 40, the holy of holies for the redistributionist left. Some of this reflects the influence of a huge $300million plus campaign funded by the oligarchs. Yet it is also due to some pragmatic decisions by some unions, as well as governor Gavin Newsom and his newly elected successor, Xavier Becerra. The prospect of losing more wealthy taxpayers was a key argument against the measure.

Hopefully, there’s a lesson here for the Republicans. To put it bluntly, it was not the economy – the UK, France and Germany could only dream of such a strong one – but the awfulness of Trump and his horrendous taste in candidates. Dr Demento can be traced directly to Republican Senate losses in Texas, South Carolina and North Carolina – all seats that almost always go to Republicans.

Just as Trump’s 2024 presidential victory was not the mandate conservatives claimed it was, last night was not an unalloyed victory for the left either. Senate losses in Texas, South Carolina, North Carolina and Kansas do not so much mean that these states are moving left, but rather that they wanted to send a message to Trump and his loyal minions. You cannot run non-entities like Darline Graham, or sleazeballs like Ken Paxton, and expect hoi polloi to rally to the cause.

In some ways, the real battles will now shift to within the parties. The DSA will battle the more mainstream Democrats for control of the party. And now that the ‘king’ is old, crippled and discredited, the GOP will also need to find its way past cultism and towards principles on markets, individual rights and strong national defence that are its bread and butter. The recent Republican rebellion over Trump’s cozying up to Vladimir Putin may be the sign that some in the party are already beginning to break away. After the rout will come a stampede.

Ultimately, the road back to sanity – for both parties – lies in the middle. DSA Democrats will win in some urban districts and college towns, but not in the bulk of rural and suburban America. Without the huge bloc of Muslim voters in Michigan, El-Sayed would never have been nominated, let alone elected. One critical component besides Trump’s waning popularity was also his tariffs with Canada, a key trade partner in Michigan as well as in Maine.

But is the left now ascendant, like MAGA was in 2016? Not really. Pew has found that only seven per cent of Americans identify as left-progressives, and only nine per cent on the far right. Some 45 per cent consider themselves independent, notes Gallup, which means they at least consider themselves up for grabs.

America, after all, is still America. We are still a free enterprise society, and resistant by nature to overweening power, whether from MAGA or the DSA. The media may wish to promote the idea that a permanent progressive era is here, but one election, even with the elevation of vile figures like Abdul El-Sayed, does not mean long-lasting political changes.

The best thing for the country will be to move on from the politics of anger and resentment – so critical to the far right and far left – and begin focussing on common ideas and aspirations like homeownership, decent education and economic mobility. This election certainly had some good news for the progressives, but as the map expands, the winners will tend to be those who can cross party lines. With Trump now politically crippled, let this process begin.