To succeed, Trump needs to remember who put him there

Donald Trump’s comeback in 2024 was extraordinary. The US president-elect survived his political opponents’ attempts to convict and jail him, as well as a sniper’s fire by a mere inch. His victory in November represented one of the most significant political realignments in US history, with him continuing to win over, most notably, black and Latino voters, whom many assumed were permanently attached to the Democrats.

Trump’s win will also reshape global affairs. In recent weeks, we can already see the world starting to revolve around him. World leaders were seen paying a newfound respect to him at the re-opening of Notre Dame cathedral in Paris earlier this month. Even before he has put a foot back in the White House, Trump has been engaging in diplomacy concerning Ukraine and the Middle East. It was no surprise that Time magazine named Trump its Person of the Year for 2024.

But as stunning as Trump’s personal comeback story is, I’d argue that at least as much credit should go to the ‘People of the Year’ – the American voters who propelled him back into the White House. Unlike in 2016, Trump’s victory in 2024 was backed by a more coherent and confident populist movement, an uprising of people against the established political leaders who have, for too long, ignored working-class people and their needs.

These voters deserve a tremendous amount of credit for withstanding the concerted propaganda efforts of the political and media establishment. They knew that, in voting for Trump, they would be called racists, bigots, Nazis, ‘garbage’ – and yet they did so anyway. In my area of upstate New York, I could tell something was a little different this year when I started to see people wearing t-shirts proudly stating ‘I’m voting for the convicted felon’. The shy Trump voter had come out of the closet.

In many respects, Trump was the beneficiary of Americans’ rejection of Joe Biden, Kamala Harris and the Democrats. Biden was blasé about the impact of inflation on ordinary Americans’ living standards, and he had little to show for his massive spending bills. His White House imposed strange cultural initiatives – from extending racial ‘equity’ (read: discrimination) throughout the government and schools to sending males into women’s sports and changing rooms – that very few asked for or wanted. When Biden’s Department of Justice and allies in various states launched banana-republic-esque attempts to convict Trump of felonies and remove him from ballots, people saw such moves as undemocratic. Indeed, every new ratchet of lawfare only led to more public support for Trump. Voters concluded that, if the elites hate Trump so much, he must be doing something right.

But Trump also deserves much of the credit for his victory; it didn’t just fall into his lap. In the campaign, he remained more disciplined than in past elections. He stayed on-message, driving home the fundamental question: ‘Are you better off now than you were four years ago?’ Unlike the slippery, flip-flopping Kamala Harris, everyone knew where Trump stood on key issues like the border. While his evidence-light ‘eating the cats, eating the dogs’ comments about Springfield, Ohio were widely criticised, he generally succeeded in highlighting how the Democrats have unleashed chaos with their open-border policies.

Remarkably, Trump came across as more serious and normal than Harris and the Democrats. It was the Biden administration’s deliberate policies that had allowed Venezuelan gangs to take over apartment buildings. It was Harris who – as the Trump TV ads played over and over – wanted to spend government money to provide transgender surgeries for prisoners. A more ‘normie’ Trump was able to win over normie voters.

There were other keys to Trump’s success this year. His organisation was vastly superior to the 2016 version, and it executed a surprisingly good ground game, especially in the critical swing state of Pennsylvania. His campaign also welcomed newcomers, like former Democrats Tulsi Gabbard and Robert F Kennedy Jr, and built an impressive coalition of those opposed to the Democrats and their woke agenda.

Now, a few weeks away from his inauguration, Trump is experiencing a honeymoon of sorts. He’s never been more popular, with a positive approval rating (52 per cent vs 41 per cent disapproval) and a majority approving of his transition so far. There’s been a noticeable sense of optimism in the US since the election, which some have called a ‘vibe shift’.

But with this public mood of optimism comes greater expectations of what Trump will do. People voted for change and will be greatly disappointed if he cannot deliver. To succeed, Trump will need to draw on the strengths he exhibited during the campaign, continue to be a more self-controlled and focussed version of himself, and ignore the crankier elements of his entourage.

His first term was marked by self-generated chaos and administration infighting. As before, his political opponents will now be targeting him. But perhaps his bigger challenge will be to stop being his own worst enemy. In the past few weeks, we have seen bizarre, off-message selections for his cabinet – most notably, the clownish Matt Gaetz for attorney general, who later withdrew rather than face a Senate grilling over his past sex scandals. These are echoes of the problems Trump faced with his cabinet in his first term, which became a hire-to-fire revolving door.

With respect to world affairs, Trump’s first four years were comparatively quieter than other recent presidential terms. The next few years look likely to be more explosive. A global financial crisis cannot be ruled out, and there are a number of current and potential geopolitical hot spots, not least in the Middle East. Just one of these crises could severely test Trump, and could derail his domestic agenda.

The big story of Trump’s first term were the attempts to undermine him from within the federal bureaucracy and the national-security and intelligence apparatus – the so-called deep state. Most prominently, that included efforts by the FBI, the CIA and others to bring him down with false claims about collusion with Russia, rogue investigations, the cover-up of Hunter Biden’s laptop and other forms of ‘resistance’. For his own short-term survival, as well as the longer-term health of the US body politic, Trump will need to overhaul the bureaucracy with the aim of de-politicising it.

Most of all, Trump’s success will depend on him delivering for the people who elected him. That means not only delivering on his key campaign promises, but also introducing populist measures that start re-building working-class communities. With the economy, this means keeping inflation down, creating jobs and providing additional investment for workers in areas like vocational training. With the border, this means better security to stop the reckless influx, selective deportations (focussed on criminals), while also giving support to the towns with stretched resources from sudden inflows of migrants.

When it comes to the culture war, Trump must not only rid the federal bureaucracy, military and other institutions of Biden’s woke DEI programmes, but also introduce new laws and executive orders to help families fight off the harmful spread of transgender ideology by medical authorities and school officials.

In this effort, Trump must remember that having the mass of people actively working alongside him, rather than being passive onlookers, will be his greatest asset. Indeed, leveraging the demos is the best way to take on his opponents’ unelected (and often hidden) sources of power, which extend throughout the institutions of society, including education, law, health, media and philanthropy. This means offering support and encouragement for various grassroots campaign groups, like Moms for Liberty, who are fighting to reform schools. It could also mean mass mobilisations, like demonstrations and other campaigns, to put pressure on congress and sway public opinion. In this effort, reforms aimed at securing greater democratic rights and defending freedom of speech (including by dismantling the Biden-tech censorship apparatus) will be especially important, as they will unleash the power of the people.

If the story of the next four years revolves around Mar-a-Lago palace intrigue, rather than ordinary people’s everyday lives, then the momentum from Trump’s victory will dissipate. He needs to keep his priorities straight and listen more to his populist vice-president, JD Vance, and less to the tech-bro advisers, Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy. People voted for change, so there will be a willingness to tolerate, if not welcome, some disruption. But there won’t be much patience if Trump doesn’t stay focussed on voters’ needs and deliver real benefits.

Trump is riding high right now, but he can’t forget that he depends on the masses who support him – and who will turn on him if he doesn’t produce. He has proven that he is popular enough to win two elections, but the jury is still out on whether he can govern effectively. The people are watching to see if his commitment to the working class goes beyond a 15-minute shift at McDonald’s and a ride in a garbage truck.

Over many years, we have witnessed a devastating elite assault on working-class lives, communities and culture. Now there is a window of opportunity to roll all of that back and give the people more control. It would be a terrible shame to waste this opportunity.

Sean Collins is a writer based in New York. Visit his blog, The American Situation.