Ukraine’s raid in Russia is an audacious gamble

Ukraine’s incursion into Russia’s Kursk region has taken both the Kremlin and the West by surprise.

After launching the shock raid on 6 August, Ukrainian forces have made significant inroads into Russia. They now claim to hold 1,000 square kilometres of Russian territory, and have also been involved in skirmishes on the border with Belgorod, another Russian region to the south of Kursk.

It is worth pausing to note how remarkable this is. In the 900 days since Russia began its full-scale invasion, Ukraine has been battered by a Russian military enjoying a huge advantage in terms of men and military equipment. In recent months, the headlines in the West have become increasingly gloomy, as Russia has eked out consistent gains in Ukraine’s east, blasting what it calls ‘historic Russian lands’ with enormous remotely guided bombs. Ukraine’s manpower and morale are arguably at the lowest they’ve been since the start of the war. And yet Ukraine has once again shown that it is still capable of springing a surprise and striking a blow against Russia.

It is too early to say what lasting impact this incursion will have or what Ukraine’s plans are. It is possible that it will soon retreat back across the border. It is also possible that the whole enterprise turns into a disaster, with Russia managing to cut Ukraine’s forces off.

There are reports of Ukrainian forces quickly digging defences in Russian territory. There are also videos emerging showing significant damage to Russian military convoys. Still, we can only speculate on the likely motives behind the raid and its consequences.

Many analysts have suggested that Ukraine is attempting to improve its negotiating position, seizing a part of Russian territory that could then be swapped for a part of Ukrainian territory held by the Russians. This certainly can’t be ruled out. Using the element of surprise, Ukraine has been able to inflict significant damage on Russian forces and capture large numbers of prisoners, a valuable commodity.

Ukraine’s gamble certainly plays to its strengths. In recent months, Ukraine has been increasingly fighting on Russia’s terms, in the form of a slow-moving war of attrition. This is a mode of war that Russia, despite its enormous losses, was always more likely to win. Ukraine now seems to be trying to change the trajectory of the conflict through innovations in communications, drone use and sheer daring.

Ukraine may also be able to force Russia into a difficult strategic quandary. Its operation in Kursk is not yet drawing significant Russian forces away from the Donbas. But questions will be asked of Putin if he’s seen to be prioritising the pretend ‘Russian regions’ in the Donbas over actual Russian regions in the Russian Federation. Putin is hardly in thrall to Russian public opinion, but it does still matter, especially when Russian territory is at stake.

Ukraine’s operation comes with tremendous risks, though. Its forces, already stretched thin, can ill afford to resource multiple sustained engagements. Creating new supply lines to support the forces now encamped in Russian territory will be a considerable challenge. Embattled forces stationed in the Donbas will suffer if Ukraine shifts resources to Kursk.

Some commentators have suggested that Ukraine’s raid could encourage Russia to ‘escalate’ the conflict, perhaps by ramping up conscription or formally declaring war – more than two years on, the Kremlin is still calling this a ‘special military operation’. But it is difficult to imagine what more Putin could really do, short of a highly unlikely nuclear strike. As Ukrainians like to joke, what will Russia do? Invade?

In fact, Ukraine’s incursion has helped expose the fearful hyperbole of some Western commentators. After all the warnings about what might happen if Germany dared transfer weapons to Ukraine, German tanks are now on Russian soil and it is Putin who is nervously wringing his hands.

This is not to take Russia lightly. Having seen so many of their friends and family killed and hospitals and other critical infrastructure bombed, Ukrainians are well aware of the Russian war machine’s destructive capacities. But we must remember that this is a nation fighting for its independence, its agency, its very existence. This is something that Ukraine’s detractors and supporters can lose sight of. Its detractors think Ukraine should simply accept that might is right and that independence has little value anyway. Its supporters insist they support Ukraine ‘whatever it takes’, but have been trying to ease out of the war for many months now.

Ukraine has tried, in the most desperate circumstances, to forge its own path. Where this leads – to negotiation or to prolonged war – is a question Ukrainians are widely engaged in debating. The incursion into Kursk shows that Ukraine still believes it has something to gain by rolling the dice. Whatever the outcome, Ukraine’s courage and ingenuity still serves to inspire.

Jacob Reynolds is a writer based in London and Brussels.