How Labour lost London

While the embattled UK prime minister, Keir Starmer, has vowed to stay on in post, there is no doubt that much of the capital has turned its back on him and the Labour Party he leads.

The elections across London last week ushered in a new era for the capital. Labour’s traditional electoral dominance in the city has been replaced by a fragmented political landscape – six parties control at least one London borough for the first time in the capital’s history. Labour’s loss of a remarkable 459 councillors in London wasn’t a bloody nose as much as it was a bloodbath. But who were the main beneficiaries of this spectacular anti-Labour revolt in the capital?

There is no doubt that in multicultural and cosmopolitan London, the Green Party is on the march. Lewisham is now the Green capital of urban England, with the party taking control of the council in spectacular fashion by gaining 40 councillors. In addition, the Green Party’s Liam Shrivastava won the mayoral election in the borough, finishing 5,000 votes ahead of Labour rival Amanda De Ryk. For the first time, Lewisham has a non-Labour mayor.

Labour’s once-loyal municipalities fell like dominoes. It also lost control of Lambeth, losing 32 councillors (with the Greens gaining 27 in the process), with no party now having an overall majority. It was a similar story in Southwark. Following the last general election, south London emerged as Labour’s modern British heartland – the Greens, however, clearly had other ideas.

The Green Party also won control of other London boroughs, such as Hackney, where it matched its performance in Lewisham by gaining 38 councillors. It also won the mayoralty in Hackney, with Green Party candidate Zoë Garbett defeating her Labour challenger, Caroline Woodley, by nearly 9,000 votes. The Greens wrestled control of Waltham Forest from Labour, gaining 31 councillors (with Labour losing 32).

There was also a Green surge in Haringey, with Labour losing control of the council as a result. Labour could once rely on urban inner-city London areas with relatively high black populations – but in a modern era where traditional loyalties are fraying, this is no longer the case.

Speaking of the fraying of traditional loyalties, like many other parts of the country, a significant portion of London’s Muslim voters have clearly decided to reject Labour. In Newham, Labour lost control of the council and 38 councillors in the process, while the Islamopopulist Newham Independents gained 24, and the Greens 14. Muslim independent candidates had a field day in wards such as Boleyn, East Ham and Little Ilford. Labour’s Forhad Hussain only won the mayoral election in Newham because the Newham Independents and Green Party essentially split the anti-Labour vote.

In neighbouring Tower Hamlets, which has the highest concentration of Muslims by local authority in the whole of England, Aspire strengthened its grip on the council while Labour lost 14 councillors. The well-known Lutfur Rahman, who founded Aspire, won 16,000 more votes than Labour’s Sirajul Islam, who finished a very distant second. In east London, there was quite the Islamopopulist surge.

One of the major takeaways from the London elections is the fact that Labour can no longer depend on old-fashioned modes of political engagement, and use traditional faith-based authority to secure minority votes. The collapse of patronage networks means Labour is being left behind by more dynamic rivals who are better able to mobilise and organise on the ground.

In some parts of the capital, Labour is being pushed to the margins of local civic life. If the Green Party and independent Islamopopulists decide to join forces, it could get even worse for Labour in London – and beyond.

Rakib Ehsan is the author of Beyond Grievance: What the Left Gets Wrong about Ethnic Minorities, which is available to order on Amazon.