Caerphilly: a Pyrrhic victory for the anti-Farageists

Thursday’s Senedd by-election in Caerphilly, South Wales, proved two things. Firstly, that the Labour Party is in freefall, even in what were once its heartlands. Secondly, that Reform UK is now the ascendant, agenda-setting force in British politics.

The first point is hardly a revelation. Labour only won last year’s General Election by default, defeating the spectacularly hapless, politically exhausted Tories, on the lowest vote share of any majority government in the postwar era. Lacking any vision for economic and social renewal, Keir Starmer and his gang of middle-managers have shown themselves to be utterly clueless in office. As the economy continues to flatline, services and infrastructure decay and the borders remain stubbornly porous, Labour is now regularly polling well below 20 per cent and Starmer himself is now the most unpopular prime minister on record.

But the drubbing Labour received in Caerphilly is still quite something. This was an election in South Wales, a region synonymous with Labour since the party’s founding over a century ago. Labour has held the Senedd seat in Caerphilly since devolution in 1999, and the Westminster seat since it was created in 1918. Yet on Thursday, it received just 11 per cent of the vote, down from 46 per cent in 2021. Labour, having long since abandoned its working-class base, may have been losing traction in Wales over the past couple of decades, but nothing could have prepared it for the scale of Thursday’s collapse. This was an historic implosion from which a recovery is far from certain.

Secondly, the Caerphilly result confirms that Reform is now the dominant force in British politics. The Welsh nationalists of Plaid Cymru may have formally won the by-election, picking up 47.4 per cent of the vote, with Reform trailing behind on 36 per cent. But Plaid didn’t triumph because of an unexpected surge of support for Welsh independence. Rather it won because it positioned itself as the anti-Reform party. That was effectively its message to local voters – hate Farage, vote Plaid.

Indeed, in the run-up to Thursday’s ballot, Plaid leader Rhun ap Iorwerth defined his party solely in terms of it not being Reform. There was little mention of challenging the Welsh Labour Party – which is actually governing Wales – or of particular policies. Instead, he talked in the clichés of anti-populist elitism, positioning Plaid as a ‘progressive’ party with a ‘positive’ message, as opposed to Reform which is supposedly promoting ‘division’ and ‘pitching people against each other’. Listening to ap Iorwerth, he could have been speaking for any party. Any party, that is, that’s not Reform. His was the voice of the anti-populist uniparty in full, platitudinous song.

In the case of Caerphilly, it worked. A Survation opinion poll last week put Reform ahead of Plaid, on 42 per cent to 38 per cent. As the vote approached, Plaid effectively played on the fears of that significant contingent of ‘progressive’ middle-class voters, whose loathing for Reform, Farage and its largely working-class base trumps all other concerns. So, in a fit of tactical voting, the anti-Faragists gave their support to Plaid. And they did so in numbers that far exceed support for Plaid’s actual cause of Welsh independence.

The Reform-phobics of our media and political classes have greeted Plaid’s victory with something close to glee. A Guardian pundit talked up the rise of the Stop Reform UK party. Even some in Labour, the biggest loser of the night, seemed absurdly happy, with one anonymous minister proudly proclaiming the existence of ‘an anti-Reform majority in Wales and in the UK’. Some Labourites are now even excitedly talking about the emergence of a ‘progressive’ alliance, comprising everyone from Plaid to the Greens to the Lib Dems. Fuelled by tactical voting, it would contain the putative threat of Reform by erecting a French-style cordon sanitaire around this supposedly unspeakable party and its deplorable voters.

All this goes to show that, even when Reform is not winning elections, it remains the dominant force in British politics, shaping the party-political landscape around it. The populists are the ones making the weather, in Wales and beyond.

Tim Black is associate editor of spiked.