The grim, imperious farce of the Trump-Putin summit

There is more than a whiff of Great Power arrogance about the upcoming summit between US president Donald Trump and his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin. The pair are due to meet on Friday in Alaska to discuss the future of Ukraine – from a possible ceasefire to potential exchanges of territory. And they’re set to do so without the involvement of any representative from Ukraine.

The White House had mooted the possibility of involving Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky, possibly as part of a later trilateral summit, but that has been effectively rejected by Putin. ‘Certain conditions must be met [for Zelensky’s involvement] and, unfortunately, we are still far from creating such conditions’, said the Russian president last week, somewhat evasively.

As a result, an air of grim farce hangs over the summit. Ukrainians have been doggedly and courageously resisting Russia’s invasion for over three-and-a-half years now. They have fought for their way of life, for their independence, their nationhood, since February 2022. Yet now, at the hands of the US and Russia, they are in danger of being reduced to spectators, forced to watch on as their own nation’s future is decided by Washington and Moscow.

Ukraine’s absence from the summit means it’s difficult to see it producing anything of real substance. Trump, Putin and their negotiating teams can agree to any proposals they like in theory. But without the buy-in of Ukraine, these proposals will be near-enough meaningless. This is why some observers expect only a limited set of measures to be discussed – such as restricting certain aerial assaults on infrastructure – rather than an agreement of lasting consequence.

Of course, there is still a small chance that these bilateral talks do result in a serious peace plan – even one that Ukraine’s leadership would be willing to support. Not least because Zelensky is coming under significant pressure at home. A combination of near-constant allegations of high-level corruption and his coercive mobilisation policy is undermining his government’s legitimacy and support for its war effort.

Indeed, recent polling finds that many Ukrainians are growing increasingly desperate for the war to end – 69 per cent now favour negotiating peace as soon as possible, while just 24 per cent want to keep fighting until the Russian occupiers are forced out. Public morale is lower than at any point since the war began. According to reports, there is now a significant section of Ukraine’s military and political elite who believe they should accept even an unfavourable deal, just to allow for a pause in the fighting.

But if a plan is generated by Friday’s summit, it still seems unlikely Ukrainians would accept it. Like so much of the Trump administration’s efforts to negotiate a peace in Ukraine, its initial proposals to Russia ahead of Friday’s summit sound as if they cede far too much ground to Putin. Although the details of whatever Trump’s envoy, Steve Witkoff, offered to Russian diplomats last week have not been made public, the subsequent leaks and briefings do not make for pleasant reading for Kyiv.

Polish news outlet Onet claims Washington’s offer includes a ceasefire, effective recognition of Russia’s territorial gains and the lifting of most US sanctions on Russia. Trump himself has mentioned that there could be ‘some swapping of territory’. Observers have suggested this would entail Ukraine giving up those parts of the eastern Donetsk and Luhansk regions still free of Russian occupiers in return for a few slivers of land occupied by Russia in the Sumy and Kharkiv regions.

Furthermore, there is little to suggest that Moscow’s own demands have softened. Alongside the roughly 20 per cent of Ukrainian territory so far under Russian occupation, Putin also wants Ukraine not only to formally rule out future NATO membership but also to restrict the size of its own army. In other words, he effectively wants Ukraine to limit its capacity to resist any future aggression. He wants it to commit to an insecure future.

If the result of Friday’s summit is a plan along the terms being reported, it’s difficult to see how even a weakened Zelensky will be able to accept it. After Ukrainians have given so much to defend themselves, the idea that they could agree to a neoimperial carve-up of their country and put its future security in doubt beggars belief.

As it stands, it’s hard to see Friday’s summit bearing any real fruit. Without Ukraine at the negotiating table, any deal or agreement reached by Trump and Putin will ring hollow. The only peace that can hold will be on terms acceptable to the Ukrainian people, not those of an irredentist Moscow or a clueless White House.

Tim Black is associate editor of spiked.