Musk’s outbursts reveal a deeper rift in MAGA

The deepening split between Elon Musk and the Trump administration speaks to broader divisions within an increasingly shell-shocked GOP. Musk, who left the White House only last week, has since denounced Donald Trump’s hodgepodge budget bill – the so-called Big Beautiful Bill – as a ‘disgusting abomination’, as it will add almost $4 trillion to the federal deficit. He had previously called Trump’s pro-tariff chief trade adviser, Peter Navarro, a ‘moron’, reflecting the gulf between the populists and the oligarchs in the MAGA coalition. Oligarchs, whatever their party, do not favour tariffs, curbing immigration or raising taxes on themselves.

It turns out that this incoherence, married to one-man rule under Trump, has consequences. MAGA is a coalition based largely on a shared detestation of the ‘progressive’ agenda, but it has little else in common. It includes people concerned about free speech and anti-Semitism, as well as Christian humanists. And it also contains deeply troubling elements that appeal to a stew of authoritarian, nativist, racist and anti-Semitic ideas – tropes long peddled and platformed by Trump supporters such as the pro-monarchist Curtis Yarvin and the ubiquitous, ever-ugly Tucker Carlson.

Not surprisingly, the broader base that elected Trump is now fracturing into its constituent parts. This is not to say that there has been a shift to the self-righteous and rightfully ignored ‘Never Trumpers’ in the GOP. Nor have Republicans suddenly embraced the leftist meme that Trump is a ‘fascist’ with a plan. He is nothing of the sort: he lacks any real ideology or disciplined movement capable of advancing a particular programme.

In essence, Trump is a grifting narcissist with a keen sense of how to take advantage of the sustained imbecility of his opponents. But there is no fixed core to Trumpism – only impulses more expected from a toddler with ADHD than a presidential administration. He may have been a builder in his past career, but he appears clueless when it comes to constructing a clear policy agenda beyond revanchism and grift.

This incoherence is now undermining his own coalition. The tariff blitzkrieg, for instance, could be seen as justified in response to the undoubted mercantilism of Canada, the EU and, above all, China. Yet instead of leading to concessions from other countries, the chaotic rollout of the tariffs has the potential to paralyse large swathes of the US economy, including the all-important auto industry – winning few allies beyond a handful of labour-union leaders, many of whom will probably never support him anyway.

One can feel the wheels coming off, as many of the key constituencies that elected both Trump and the GOP Congress resist his impetuosity and persistent dishonesty. Like most political movements, MAGA is a fragile alliance of groups that often have little in common – and in some cases, loathe each other. This is already evident in the widening chasm between Trump’s tech bros, who favour cutting government spending and care chiefly about personal enrichment, and the working- and middle-class voters who twice put him in the White House.

Beyond the loss of Musk, whose support was crucial to his 2024 electoral success, Trump is slowly dissolving one key alliance after another. One critical rupture has occurred with traditional, small-government conservatives, epitomised by the Federalist Society, which played a pivotal role in judicial appointments in Trump’s first term. As strict constitutionalists, they are naturally sceptical of Trump’s federal power grabs. In the future, he is more likely to appoint not principled conservatives, but the kind of partisan hacks found in the district courts of blue states – or worse, the judges of the People’s Courts in socialist regimes.

To these losses, one can now add much of the business community. Although they have always been wary of his impulsiveness, many corporate leaders once preferred Trump to the studied incompetence of the Biden-era Democrats. Not all of the blame for this lies with Trump himself. Some of it is thanks to the alarmism of the ‘free market’ right, exemplified by the Wall Street Journal and ideologues like former senator Phil Gramm. These free-market devotees issue daily warnings that Trump’s attempts to rebalance highly unfavourable trade relations will inevitably boost inflation and lead to recession.

Yet Trump’s on-again, off-again tariffs have unsettled even the more sympathetic and less ideologically rigid businesspeople, especially thanks to the chaos being caused to the markets. Their pushback is, however, getting a hearing from a man who loves money and believes in the superiority of the successful. This was evident in Trump’s recent tariff reversals – particularly on tech products, reflecting the sector’s stranglehold on the stock market.

Main Street businesses, long a linchpin of the MAGA movement, appear far less favoured by the White House than the billionaires. For many in small business, new tariffs may prevent them from selling many of their products. Ramping up American capacity in steel, aerospace and semiconductors in response to China makes sense and would win broad support. But making dolls, t-shirts and household goods more expensive – or even unavailable – likely would not.

By far the most significant defection from MAGA is that of working-class voters, who now constitute the GOP’s core. Trump’s great political achievement has been winning over this group. Remarkably, for the first time in decades, more Americans think the GOP cares more about ‘people like me’ than the Democrats – the former ‘party of the people’. Yet since his election, Trump has only really given lip service to this constituency.

Trump’s billionaire-dominated cabinet, along with his former ties to Musk, undermines the populist message, as former adviser Steve Bannon has pointed out. Populist Senator Josh Hawley has warned that proposed social-spending cuts could ‘end any chance’ of the GOP consolidating its working-class base.

Add to that Trump’s barely concealed attempts to expand his family’s global fortunes, most notably his dabbling in Trump-branded ‘meme coins’ or his use of the presidency to ink deals for new Trump golf courses abroad. This is grifting on the scale of the Bidens, only with more zeros. This tinpot-dictator-style corruption renders him especially vulnerable to attacks from the left, which now seems worried about resurgent feudalism, at least since certain billionaires defected from the Democrats in 2024.

Ultimately, most middle- and working-class voters will judge Trump and the GOP on how they fare materially under them. The wealthy thrived under Biden, while the working class struggled. Under Trump, this feudal pattern has persisted so far. The Manhattan luxury-apartment market – Trump’s old stomping ground – is having a good year, even as aspiring homeowners in the suburbs and exurbs struggle to buy anything.

Then there are the Latinos, whose shift to the GOP was critical to Trump’s re-election. They have many reasons to embrace the ‘Made in America’ pitch, as they form an expanding segment of the ‘carbon economy’ – manufacturing, energy, agriculture, logistics and construction. These workers are especially threatened by the left’s climate agenda.

A large portion of Latinos, particularly those born in the US, also support the deportation of those criminal elements who arrived under Biden when border enforcement was non-existent. However, they may be less thrilled to see a peaceable neighbour of 20 years arrested and sent home. With the help of a largely compliant media, expect to hear more about blameless deportees and fewer stories about criminals and terrorists.

Finally, there are the Jews – a smaller but strategically important group in key purple states such as Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona and Michigan. They have been drifting slowly towards the GOP, with Trump gaining the highest Jewish support for a Republican since Ronald Reagan. Trump’s attacks on anti-Semitism in universities and his support for Israel, which was always lukewarm among Biden’s puppeteers, created a serious opening.

However, Trump’s flirtation with the anti-Semitic right, along with his embrace of Hamas-supporting Qatar – epitomised by its gifting of a shiny new presidential jet – could stall this political realignment. Nor will Trump’s attempts to cut an Obama-style deal with Iran’s mullahs help. This would enable them to continue their attempts to dominate the Middle East, to threaten Israel and to attack Jews worldwide.

In normal times, such a fracturing of support would spell disaster. And certainly, without a coherent programme, MAGA’s prospects look murky – especially once Trump exits the stage. There is a strong possibility that a pivotal opportunity to forge a credible nationalist-populist movement will be squandered. Instead, MAGA may leave voters choosing between two unpalatable paradigms: progressive welfarism or oligarchic greed.

In the short run, this dysfunction may benefit the Democrats, who currently enjoy a slight lead in congressional polling. But Trump’s persistent idiocy may not be enough to get them back in power, given their fundamental cluelessness about what ordinary voters think – whether in terms of the transgender idiocy, racial quotas, the border or climate policy.

The president may be losing his political grip, but with opponents like Kamala Harris, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Jasmine Crockett and DNC vice-chair David Hogg, even a movement led by an unhinged Trump retains more than a fighting chance.

Joel Kotkin is a spiked columnist, a presidential fellow in Urban Studies at Chapman University in Orange, California, and a senior research fellow at the University of Texas’ Civitas Institute.