Why India and Pakistan are on the brink of war

Not for the first time, nuclear-armed rivals Pakistan and India have exchanged fire in the disputed territory of Kashmir. The fighting follows last week’s jihadist attack, in which 26 non-Muslim tourists were killed at a popular beauty spot in Pahalgam, Kashmir. Responsibility for the attack has since been claimed by the Resistance Front, an affiliate of the Pakistan-based jihadist group, Lashkar-e-Taiba, which orchestrated the 2008 Mumbai attacks that killed 175 people.

Although Islamabad denies any involvement, India’s response shows it doesn’t believe the denials. New Delhi has closed the border to Pakistan, expelled diplomats and ordered almost all Pakistani citizens to leave India. In an unprecedented move, it has also suspended the 65-year-old Indus Waters Treaty, which guarantees water supply to Pakistan and provides 80 per cent of the water Pakistan uses for agriculture. According to reports, the Indian authorities have now arrested 1,500 people in Kashmir and destroyed homes linked to the alleged attackers.

In turn, Pakistan has responded by shutting down airspace and halting trade, all the while insisting that the Pahalgam attack was a ‘false-flag operation’, supposedly staged by India as a pretext for war. Ominously, it has described the decision to restrict water supplies as an ‘act of war’. Pakistan says it has ‘reinforced’ its military on the grounds that an attack by India is ‘imminent’.

While a tentative ceasefire has existed between India and Pakistan since 2021, there are well-founded fears that current tensions will escalate well beyond cross-border gunfire and into a full-blown war. This is far from unimaginable, as India and Pakistan have fought four wars against each other since partition in 1947. A deep religious antagonism – Pakistan is a hardline Islamic society and India increasingly Hindu nationalist – makes them perennially uneasy bedfellows, even without the added complications of disputed borders.

For many, last week’s attack in Pahalgam is a sure sign that, after a brief period of relative quiet, jihadist groups are resurgent in Pakistan. Militant activity is once again plaguing the country, with even Iran – arguably the world’s biggest sponsor of terrorism – complaining that hostile militants have found safe havens in Pakistan.

Allegations that the Pakistani government backs jihadist groups have impacted domestic politics, too. In 2022, when Imran Khan was ousted as president, chants accusing the Pakistan army of backing terrorism were echoed nationwide. In an interview with Sky News last week, the Pakistani defence minister, Khawaja Asif, confessed that, ‘We have been doing this dirty work for decades’. These remarks will not have gone unnoticed in New Delhi.

Recent statements from senior figures on both sides don’t bode well for a quick, or indeed peaceful, resolution to the skirmishes in Kashmir. A week before the Pahalgam attack, the head of Pakistan’s army, Asim Munir, heartily endorsed anti-Hindu bigotry in a speech to an audience that included prime minister Shehbaz Sharif. Munir claimed Pakistanis are ‘different from the Hindus in every possible aspect of life’. Meanwhile, Indian prime minister Narendra Modi has promised to ‘pursue [those responsible] to the ends of the Earth’. There is every reason to fear that Modi, a Hindu nationalist whose BJP has made India increasingly sectarian, will be pushed too far in his response – particularly in light of his waning electoral support.

Regardless of the immediate steps taken by the Pakistani or Indian governments, it is clear after Pahalgam that jihadist groups in Pakistan are also determined to cause chaos. Whether these groups are working independently, or have their strings pulled by the Pakistan army, is almost a moot point at this stage. War will always be a possibility, as long as both India and Pakistan use religious grievances to pit their peoples against each other.

Kunwar Khuldune Shahid is a writer based in Pakistan.