The firewall against the AfD is starting to crumble

With only a few weeks to go before Germany’s federal elections, commentators are nervously watching the polls. The right-populist Alternative for Germany (AfD) has been steadily gaining ground for some time now. To make matters more tense, the opposition Christian Democrats (CDU) have unexpectedly teamed up with the AfD to try to pass new laws on immigration.

CDU leader and chancellor-in-waiting Friedrich Merz ignited a firestorm last week, when he proposed a motion in the Bundestag to tighten migration rules. It passed by just three votes and was helped over the line by the AfD. This was the first time in Germany’s history that the AfD has been on the winning side in parliament. In letting this happen, Merz broke the cordon sanitaire, the sacred ‘firewall’, that had previously kept the AfD effectively frozen out of German politics.

Immediately, Merz was accused of posing a threat to democratic values. Chancellor Olaf Scholz of the Social Democrats (SPD) denounced Merz as an ‘emotion-driven gambler lacking an inner compass’. The SPD parliamentary group leader, Rolf Mützenich, went further, accusing Merz of opening the ‘gates of hell’. Thousands of Germans took to the streets in protest, too. In Leipzig, there were chants of ‘We all hate the CDU’. Around 160,000 people rallied in Berlin on Sunday under the slogan ‘We are the firewall’. A CDU party conference on Monday had to be secured by a large contingent of police.

The apocalyptic wailings of Merz’s opponents have little to do with a desire to defend migrants, or even the specifics of his proposals for the border. They are primarily expressing a fear of the AfD – and, by extension, of their fellow citizens.

Merz put forward his proposals after a deadly knife attack in Aschaffenburg, Bavaria at the end of January. An illegal immigrant from Afghanistan killed a toddler and a 41-year-old man, and injured two others, including a small child. Merz’s ‘five-point plan’ presented to the Bundestag proposed several measures in response to this horrific incident: permanent border controls, denying entry to those without valid documentation, expedited deportations, and indefinite detention for criminals and other offenders who are awaiting deportation. While this non-binding proposal secured a majority, Merz’s Immigration Restriction Bill, presented two days later, failed to pass, despite also having the AfD’s backing. The defeated legislation would have enhanced border security and limited family-reunification options for certain migrants.

The Aschaffenburg attack capped off a series of tragic and deadly attacks by migrants in recent months, including terror attacks in Magdeburg, Solingen and Mannheim. While these atrocities have certainly played into the AfD’s hands, even Scholz felt moved to acknowledge that Germany has a serious problem with illegal immigration. He lamely pointed out that he was ‘tired of violent crimes occurring every few weeks’ and called for an end to ‘false tolerance’ towards the perpetrators. Still, the attacks themselves seem to have generated far less fury in the political class than Merz’s broken pledge to maintain the firewall against the AfD.

The mainstream parties had long maintained a united front against the AfD. Any legislation proposed by the AfD would be automatically rejected, while mainstream bills receiving the party’s support would be withdrawn. This practice of quarantining the AfD was treated as sacrosanct. With his ‘taboo-breaking gambit’, as some have described it, Merz has now exposed fissures in the firewall.

Ultimately, Merz’s actions have demonstrated what ought to have been obvious – namely, that the firewall cannot be upheld forever, especially as the AfD keeps gaining votes. Facing his critics, Merz responded: ‘Deciding what is right does not become wrong because the wrong people – ie, the AfD – agree… How many more people need to be murdered?’ He also rejected the ‘firewall’ terminology, stating: ‘The word firewall… is not used by me. Firewall is the wrong image. I don’t want the fire behind the wall to become a conflagration throughout Germany.’

Merz is right that the CDU’s adherence to the firewall strategy is unsustainable. Not least as it has effectively tethered the party to the SPD and the Greens on critical issues like migration, while simultaneously hampering its ability to reclaim its former voters who have shifted to the AfD. Merz has repeatedly promised to ‘halve the AfD’s vote’. Instead, the AfD has surged to 20 per cent in polls and appears poised to emerge as the second-largest party in the upcoming election.

Merz’s ability to recover lost voters remains uncertain. The polls would appear to be his side, with migration being Germans’ No1 concern and with widespread support for tighter border controls – even among SPD voters. But Merz’s failure to pass his Immigration Restriction Bill exposed a critical vulnerability – namely, his own party. The bill fell short by exactly 12 votes – the same number of CDU members who broke ranks and failed to support it. One of his internal party critics is former chancellor Angela Merkel, who intervened from the sidelines, presumably to defend her legacy on immigration.

In truth, contrary to the heated rhetoric from his opponents, Merz has actually proceeded with considerable caution, even timidity. During his proposal presentation, he relentlessly emphasised his desire for SPD and Green support. Moreover, he also explicitly denounced the AfD, accusing it of ‘exploiting’ mass migration to ‘fuel xenophobia and circulate conspiracy theories’, as well as calling it ‘not a partner, but our political opponent’.

This was a message Merz repeated at Monday’s CDU conference where he said: ‘There will be no cooperation, there will be no acquiescence, there will be no minority government, nothing at all.’ This was essentially a promise to maintain the firewall after the elections after all. This was a clear attempt to convince AfD supporters that their votes are pointless, as their party will remain politically isolated, no matter how well it does in the election.

This strategy will almost certainly backfire. It is highly unlikely that the CDU, which is currently polling at around 29 per cent, will be able to govern alone even if it comes on top in the elections. By ruling out any cooperation with the AfD, Merz will have to form a coalition with one of the parties in the widely hated current government, either the SPD or the Greens. The message this sends to wavering AfD supporters is that a vote for the CDU is a vote for the status quo.

Initial polling, so anxiously anticipated by media commentators, suggests Merz’s initiative has indeed failed to attract new voters. However, given that the polls are notoriously error-prone, only the election itself will reveal whether voters are prepared to return to the CDU – a party that, we shouldn’t forget, bears significant responsibility for many of Germany’s current problems.

One thing is clear: those who want a firewall to keep the AfD out of politics have long since given up on trying to win over a majority of Germans. The only way they can continue to govern is by marginalising ever larger sections of the electorate. That can’t go on much longer.

Sabine Beppler-Spahl is spiked’s Germany correspondent.