This is not misplaced optimism; the FAO realises that, as it has in the past, technological progress will continue to increase crop yields with promising developments like genetically-modified drought-resistant crops.

The FAO’s predictions fit nicely within a trend of increasing crop yields and increasingly efficient use of resources such as water and land in agriculture. Despite claims of a ‘population bomb’ in the 1970s, from the mid-twentieth century until recently, global food supplies grew 50 per cent faster than the human population. The Nineties saw malnutrition halve in Latin America and fall by two-thirds – to 10 per cent – in East Asia.

So why then has the number of malnourished people recently increased to more than one billion, reversing decades of progress? Why do a full third of African children continue to suffer from malnutrition in the first five years of their lives?

Simply, getting food past government barriers and to those who need it most continues to be a struggle in many developing countries. When food does not cross borders, hunger does.

The politics of starvation

It is estimated that more than 20million people currently face a new famine in East Africa. Once again, the media has been only too happy to associate images of emaciated children with headlines of drought, climate change or population pressure. But there is nothing inevitable or ‘natural’ about these recurrent food crises. The given explanations are straw men – and governments, the most obvious culprits, have largely gone unmentioned in news reports and political statements.

These countries are unable to deal with dry conditions because their governments have continually discouraged investment in agriculture and kept food prices artificially high. They refuse to allow trade in food, not only with neighbouring states, but also within the country.

The 2006 Horn of Africa famine is a telling example. While crops were abundant in southwest Kenya, people in the north of the country were starving. This is an oft-repeated pattern. Modern famines, such as the one in Bangladesh in the 1970s, are caused by bad policies.

With weak rule of law and high intervention in the economy, many African countries are hardly investment- or business-friendly environments. Barriers to trade are four times higher in developing countries than in high-income countries. Farmers are hit especially hard: overall, African farmers pay 60 per cent more in export taxes than other African businesses. More generally, many developing country policies have disadvantaged and exploited their agricultural sectors, in order to subsidise more grandiose urban activities. Food marketing boards and heavy tariffs on the agriculture sector have deterred investments that would have increased agricultural output.

Despite the widespread failure of protectionist policies in agriculture, many Western NGOs continue to support the idea of self-sufficiency and protectionism. They argue that developing countries which are so reliant on agriculture should be able to protect themselves from the vagaries of the market. But as appealing as these ideas may seem, they are at complete odds with reality.

According to agricultural economist Professor Douglas Southgate, ‘many of the poorest countries in the Sub-Saharan region actually have relatively high indices of food self-sufficiency… however, this is no mark of success’. Malnutrition and poverty rates remain high and, despite involving 70-80 per cent of the workforce, agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa only provides 30 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP).  Conversely, food security has increased and food prices have decreased in countries that have opened their agricultural sectors and engaged in trade.

Restrictions and bans on exports begin by keeping domestic food prices artificially low, but this is true only for a short while. Farmers soon lose the incentive to grow more, so crop prices rise, both domestically and abroad. This is exactly what has happened in the Ukraine and Argentina, two countries with fertile lands and weather fit for farming.

If Ukrainian farmers were allowed to sell to international customers, they could easily double cereal production and export 50 to 80million tons more each year ― enough to feed 50million people in China. Argentina could easily produce 30million more tons of cereal for export every year, if it weren’t for steep export taxes.

Barriers to trade shrink the global harvest and drive up prices. The impacts on poor consumers are devastating. Nobel economics laureate Gary Becker estimates that a 30 per cent rise in food prices over five years would cause a 20 per cent fall in living standards in poor countries.

Trade barriers also lead to waste. Up to 50 per cent of food is inedible by the time it reaches its intended customer in developing countries, having rotted during lengthy and bureaucratic customs checks.

The future of hunger

Many governments have repeatedly accepted the need to lower tariffs on food and agricultural technology. In 2008, governments from all around the world agreed that reducing tariffs on food was the best way to reduce prices and hunger. Yet, 40 countries have applied new restrictions on food trade in the past year, according to the FAO. Fifteen of those are in Sub-Saharan Africa, the region that is worst afflicted by hunger.

Similarly, there is a general consensus on the importance of land rights to increasing crop yields and wealth. The right to own and exchange property encourages farmers to invest more time and money into their land. It also allows them to use their land as collateral to obtain loans meaning they can invest in improving their farming business by buying fertiliser or hybrid seeds, or in their families’ health and education. Yet, progress in recognising and enforcing land rights is slow in many developing countries.

While the FAO speaks of ‘cautious optimism’ about feeding the world of the future, food prices are out of control for the very poorest. Prices may have fallen significantly following their peak in 2007 and 2008, but they remain high in many sub-Saharan countries.

With stifled markets and top-down control, and largely absent or poorly enforced property rights, the region’s farmers have found it hard to bounce back and recover. Just a few months ago, maize prices in Kenya and Ethiopia were still twice as high as they had been before the crisis.

The debate in agriculture has largely centred on investment and developing new technologies in recent years. Yet, as Africa’s recurring famines show, focusing on food production is meaningless if food cannot be transported and sold freely. Removing barriers to the sale of food is crucial if Kenya and Ethiopia’s famines are to become a horror of the past.

Caroline Boin is a project director at International Policy Network.