
But at the same time, you have to say what a great market we have in the UK, full of great ideas and exciting innovation. The speed with which people have responded to the challenges of the recession is impressive, which only shows that this is not a complacent market, but a highly competitive one.
At The Grocer, our audience is food retailers, by and large, and there are a number of negative and positive changes going on that affect retailers.
First, the negatives. I don’t think that food inflation has gone away as a threat, not least because recently oil prices have started to creep up again. In addition, certain commodity prices, like those for sugar and cocoa, remain high. The pound is still weak against other major currencies and there’s no sign of it strengthening any time soon. That means that the food we import is going to become more expensive.
Then there is the legislative framework. There are simply more and more regulations for manufacturers and retailers to deal with, around issues like saturated fats and sugar, advertising restrictions, and so on. The UK Competition Commission has advised that an ombudsman be appointed to cover food retail and that a revised code of conduct be introduced.
These are proposals that the major retailers are challenging to various degrees because they do add complications to a market that, in many respects, has been shown in the past couple of years to be highly competitive. While there have been suggestions that price fixing is going on amongst the major supermarkets, this has never been demonstrated and I think there is genuine variation in product prices and different strategies for attracting customers.
While the big supermarkets are slugging it out, there’s plenty of evidence that the independent stores continue to improve, especially where they are supported by the symbol groups - brands like Spar, Premier, Bestway, Nisa-Today and so on. While the number of unaffiliated independent stores continues to decline, the number of shops affiliated to these symbol groups has actually increased. In other words, there are people migrating from being genuinely unaffiliated independents to needing the support of a symbol group. There is no doubt that when they hook up with a symbol group, small retailers have got far better support and they are far more viable as businesses.
The symbol groups support retailers in terms of knowing the right products, providing marketing materials and providing advice on how to market themselves. The people at the symbol group are paid to know what’s doing well elsewhere, so there is shared learning. I would equate it to what happens at the supermarkets: a store manager doesn’t decide what the store is going to stock, he is there to make sure the shelves are stocked up. It’s really tough to be an unaffiliated independent these days, but when you’re are allied to a symbol group, you’ve got a better chance.
For example, small stores tend to be very conservative and very risk averse, so they tend to stock ambient products that last a long time. But all the trends are towards people wanting more fresh produce, ready meals and so on. It’s very hard to do that on your own. The big wholesalers and symbol groups have invested a lot of time and infrastructure to support greater fresh produce displays, more stuff that goes in chilled lorries and so on.
While the position is looking relatively rosy for well-supported small general stores, that’s not the case for specialist shops. The decline of the specialist, small retailer is a trend that has been going on for 40 years. Over the past year or so, the number of independent bakers is down nine per cent, butchers are down five per cent, greengrocers down 22 per cent, confectioners down eight per cent. The number of health food stores and farm shops is actually up, however. This is a tough time and a very tough environment in which to compete.
That said, it’s also a tough time for Tesco, too. Just because you are huge does not mean you have everything on your own terms. Tesco might be hurting the small sweet shop, but Asda, Morrisons, Sainsbury and Waitrose are all hurting Tesco. It’s not just David versus Goliath; there is plenty of Goliath versus Goliath, too.
So when an independent retailer says it’s not fair because a ‘local’ version of a big chain has just moved in nearby, I have every sympathy with him or her. But Tesco isn’t only competing against independents, specialists and farm shops, its competing against other big organisation that also have very large buying power, nationwide distribution and so on.
The power of the supermarkets leads to the suggestion that our tastes are being determined by a small group of buyers. If there were only one supermarket, I think there might be some truth in that. But as long as we have diversity in the market, there will be choice.
I think there are a number of reasons why diversity remains in place. First is the consumer’s innate desire to try something new, and second is the nature of the competition that there is out in the marketplace. At The Grocer, we celebrate that diversity and competition, whether it comes from Waitrose, a farm shop or a local baker, or one of discount chains like Aldi, Lidl and Netto. We’re not about to enter some Soviet-era environment where you can basically get one kind of potato and that’s it. For every kind of food, there is great variety on offer.
There’s plenty of innovative new products out there, too. One simple example are Innocent Veg Pots. Innocent are best known for fruit smoothies, but they’ve now expanded into these convenience vegetable meals. They’ve been a great success, selling probably five to 10 times as much as they originally budgeted for. It’s still a fairly small market, but it’s been successful nonetheless.
There are also innovations in packaging and storage that open up new markets. Take a brand like Look What I’ve Found. These are plastic-packaged stews and soups that taste every bit as good as fresh alternatives, yet they can be stored safely on an ordinary shelf for months at a time. The technology involved is very impressive.
If the market in new foods is never static, then the debate about the ‘big issues’ isn’t static, either. Three years ago when I joined The Grocer, we were very focused on the legislative environment, particularly around obesity. That seems to have calmed down a bit. That’s not to say it’s not a great concern to manufacturers and retailers, but there’s been so much work in the area that I think the government has to some extent decided it’s time to pause. There are still all sorts of targets being proposed, but the kind of witch-hunt that there was has to some extent stopped.
The recession has been an important factor in that. Instead of focusing on how much manufacturers are trying to kill a nation with their high-fructose corn syrup (HFCS) products, the story is now about how much manufacturers and retailers are trying to rip us off with their high prices. The big theme now is how to get a good deal, how to live on less money.
While the obesity issue has calmed down, the environment is much more of a concern for people. People can see how food price rises are linked to the problem of sustainability. ‘The environment’ is a catch-all phrase for an enormous range of issues, but one of them is about how a growing population and mass consumerism come together with the result being higher prices.
For too long, concern about the environment in relation to food retailers meant simply asking how we could reduce the number of plastic bags and the amount of packaging we use. The environment is much more at the centre of things now because it is hitting people in their pockets. While other issues seem to come and go to a degree, concern about environmental issues in a broad sense is going to be with us for the foreseeable future.
This article is based on an interview by Rob Lyons.
Adam Leyland is editor of The Grocer.
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