Two years ago, the world wheat price doubled in the space of four months. So ‘spiked’ is something we’re increasingly seeing apply to world food prices.

This volatility is in part due to short-term factors; in the case of sugar there’s been drought in India coupled with flooding in Brazil. But the reason why one poor harvest causes huge price swings is the low level of world food stocks – and that’s a sign of a deeper-rooted problem.

World food supply is always in a race to keep pace with growing demand. It’s been able to do that comfortably throughout most of my lifetime thanks to a ‘green revolution’ boosting farm productivity. But this revolution has been input-intensive and we’ve started to hit some resource limits, including the availability of productive farmland, at the same time that demand is surging.

It’s wrong to ascribe this entirely to China, but a few statistics from there do illustrate the point. Chinese meat consumption has doubled over the past 15 years and dairy consumption is growing by 25 per cent a year. To grow the crops to feed those extra animals required an area greater than England and Wales combined.

China is also growing thirstier, and one extra beer per man per week in China creates another three billion gallons of annual demand.

Coupled with fast-growing demand we also face depleting oil reserves, increasingly scarce water supplies, climate instability and an imperative to reduce carbon emissions.

According to one American study, it takes 10 calories of energy to produce one calorie of food. We have to improve that ratio substantially.

Human water consumption has risen six-fold over the past 100 years – more than double the growth in population. That obviously can’t continue. Almost 70 per cent of the world’s water withdrawals are for irrigating crops, so that’s the place to look first. 

So for food companies, sustainability is not just a fashionable buzzword. We have to develop a more durable system that will stand the test of time, one that is efficient, equitable, environmentally responsible and shockproof. There is no alternative that bears contemplation.

There’s still a lot to learn about exactly how we can achieve this, but the need is urgent. We at least know the right direction of travel, and the industry is getting on with it.

IGD advises companies to apply seven steps in building a sustainable food system: 

1. Get every member of staff onboard with the scale and importance of the challenge;
   
   
2. Build partnerships - we won’t succeed with a silo mentality;
   
   
3. Wage war on waste;
   
   
4. Make the supply chain more shockproof;
   
   
5. Use technology to raise productivity;
   
   
6. Share best practice - there will always be a first-mover advantage but we need to learn from each other
   
   
7. Bring consumers with us by explaining what needs to be done and empowering them to help through their food choices.

Each of these is a critical component, but step five is worth particular examination.

We’ve had one ‘green revolution’ and we need another – this time reducing our use of inputs, but continuing to raise output. Unfortunately, at the exact moment when we need to be at our most purposeful, Europe is locked in limbo over how to apply crop science and technology.

We’re stuck in particular over genetic modification (GM). ‘GM – good or bad?’ is the wrong question; one we’ll never resolve if GM (like most technologies) can be a mixture of good and bad. A better question is how to develop lower input, higher yielding, more resilient crops and farming methods. This would put GM in its proper context as one, and only one, of the methods at our disposal.

If society can’t agree on what is and isn’t ethically acceptable then how can we expect our scientists to help us solve the problems? This has to be resolved quickly otherwise we’re losing precious time. We need to be pragmatic and flexible. There’s little value in polarised debates about which of today’s farming systems is the best. We need to develop new methods, pool our knowledge, combine our wisdom and pull in the same direction.

The scale of the challenge we face, and the disastrous consequences of failure, demand decisive action. Fortunately, food companies are full of practical people, motivated by solutions rather than arguments. Sustainability is the new competitive frontier and companies are trying to outdo each other in preparing for the future, raising ethical standards and improving resource efficiency.

An era of great change is just starting to unfold, and food will be in the vanguard.

Joanne Denney-Finch is chief executive of IGD, an international food and grocery research organisation that provides information, insight and best practice worldwide.