| 'The few climate sceptics have consistently failed to produce the scientific evidence to counter the weight of science that has been published by the genuine scientific community and reported by the IPCC.'
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As the scientific evidence mounts climate sceptics have moved on: from debating whether there is climate change; to adopting the position that there is climate change but it is not anthropogenic (man-made); to the current position of there is human-induced climate change but that it is not a problem. Those who still believe in the propaganda of the first stage (there is no climate change) are in a way removing themselves from serious scientific debate, and as a result should be ignored and pilloried.
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I will start by addressing the way in which climate science is reported. The IPCC was set up to provide governments with a review of the current state of the science surrounding the climate system and climate change - the most recent report does this for the period 1995 to 2001. Scientific research is carried out by thousands of scientists around the world funded from numerous sources. Scientific results are published within the peer-reviewed literature; it is these that are reviewed by the IPCC. The IPCC reports reflect the science. They are reviewed line-by-line by world governments and other interested parties, thus undergoing rigorous scrutiny, probably more so than any other document. If the contrary science were reported in such a way, the resultant report would be less than a side of A4 paper.
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The few climate sceptics, however vociferous, have consistently failed to produce the scientific evidence to counter the weight of science that has been published by the genuine scientific community and as reported by the IPCC. Individuals who dispute the IPCC findings should publish sound science in the same volume if they are to be taken seriously. One must now ask why they are unable to do so.
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Bjørn Lomborg presents, in my opinion, an honest, although incorrect, attempt to quantify the costs of environmental damage. Lomborg, as The Sceptical Environmentalist, does not present a complete picture (using only a limited set of statistics that support his opinion), and as such there are serious flaws in his approach. Lomborg does accept that human-induced climate change is happening and that it is a concern. However, he believes that the costs of combating climate change are not economically justified. The one positive thing to arise from Lomborg's book is that he accepts that human-induced climate change is happening, thus putting another nail in the coffin of the climate sceptics. This could be seen by some as clever positioning - had Lomborg denied the scientific evidence supporting human-induced climate change he may have been dismissed far quicker.
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For example, Lomborg states that the IPCC range for climate sensitivity of 1.5 to 4.5 degrees Celsius has not changed much over the past 25 years. This, however, is not the projected transient temperature change we may see by the time carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations double, but reflects the estimated equilibrium temperature change to a instantaneous doubling of CO2. The climate sensitivity of most climate models to an instantaneous doubling of CO2 is in the range of 2.8 to 3.5 degrees C, and the rate of change estimated by these models is in the order of 0.25 to 0.4 degrees C per decade over the coming century. The current state-of-the-art climate models also show similar and consistent patterns of warming. The climate models do not have the range of uncertainty with which Lomborg associates them.
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Lomborg also states that a 1.5 degrees C rise in temperature by the time CO2 doubles is quite small. We have seen the global mean observed temperature increase by over 0.6 degrees C over the past century; this is a rapid rate of change compared with any period in the past.
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Kyoto does not represent the solution, it merely represents opening the front door of your house on the way to your overseas holiday destination. Arguments regarding the economic costs and adaptation measures that can be implemented will hold little sway with a Bangladeshi whose village has just been lost to a storm surge, or with somebody in a developed nation who can no longer insure their house against flooding.
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There is a need to address climate change by implementing rigorous and active mitigation policies first, then addressing adaptation issues. Adaptive responses are beyond the resources of most developed countries.
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